Alasdair Macleod: Iran Conflict Accelerates Fiat Dollar Collapse

Financial analyst Alasdair Macleod analyses the ongoing US military campaign against Iran and its far-reaching economic and monetary consequences. He describes the operation as a major strategic error that has already become bogged down in its third week, far from the quick victory anticipated. Macleod highlights the disconnect between official and mainstream media narratives and the reality on the ground, stressing Iran’s military resilience and the broader risks this conflict poses to global energy supplies, commodity prices, and the fiat currency system.

• The conflict accelerates the end of the dollar-based fiat currency system; Macleod now pencils in a timeline of one to two years at most for its effective collapse
• Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz threatens not only oil flows but also critical fertilizer feedstocks (nitrogen and sulphur), which could cause severe food shortages and sharp price rises during the northern hemisphere growing season
• Iran’s million-strong military remains largely intact despite strikes, and it possesses advanced weaponry including hypersonic missiles, with targeting support reportedly provided by a Chinese observation ship
• Surging inflation expectations will drive G7 government bond yields sharply higher, exposing leveraged equity and private equity positions and leaving the Federal Reserve with an impossible choice between fighting inflation and rescuing the financial system through dollar debasement
• Near-term weakness in gold, silver, and mining equities reflects a flight to dollar liquidity during the crisis; Macleod views this as a buying opportunity and remains strongly bullish on precious metals and especially base metals longer term, which he believes are significantly undervalued in real (gold) terms