Fertilizer Supply Risks and Global Food Security | Josh Linville, StoneX

Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, joins Mat Youkee on Mining Network to deliver a balanced, level-headed analysis of the global fertilizer market following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He addresses the sharp rise in urea prices, the lack of widespread shortages after nearly 13 weeks of closure, and why he considers extreme “global famine” warnings currently overbaked. Linville warns of mounting risks heading into spring 2027, critiques U.S. fertilizer policy efforts, explains the delayed reaction in grain prices, and highlights the importance of farmer application decisions and India’s urea tenders as a key market signal.

• The Strait of Hormuz closure has halted roughly one-third of global urea exports (approximately 13.5 million tons annually) from Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, driving urea prices from recent lows around $350 per tonne to peaks of $700–$800 before settling in the mid-$550 range on the New Orleans barge market.
• Despite nearly 13 weeks of closure, no major country has yet reported outright fertilizer shortages. However, the prolonged disruption, combined with pre-existing tightness in phosphate rock, anhydrous ammonia, and sulfur supplies, is creating multi-layered problems that will likely intensify if the strait remains closed.
• Linville describes apocalyptic “world famine” narratives as currently overbaked, but cautions that the longer the strait stays closed, the closer the market moves toward real supply crises, with effects potentially lasting into spring 2027 even if it reopens today.
• Grain markets remain skeptical and have not yet priced in the fertilizer shock. Some farmers are scaling back phosphate applications and may modestly reduce nitrogen rates due to high prices and financial pressure, with yield impacts expected to become visible during summer crop tours and harvest.
• U.S. government initiatives to boost domestic nitrogen, phosphate, and potash production are welcomed but largely misplaced — particularly the heavy focus on potash (mostly imported from Canada) and certain nitrogen projects that may not directly benefit American farmers. India’s large urea tenders continue to serve as the clearest real-time snapshot of true global market pricing.