Joe Mazumdar: Gold, Tariffs, and China in 2025

Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights sees volatility driving markets as gold nears $3000 amid tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, viewed as inflationary by raising U.S. consumer costs, though Chinese firms expected worse (60% vs. 20%). He highlights a disconnect where industrial metals juniors struggle to raise funds due to negative sentiment, while gold gains from uncertainty-fueled central bank buying, not institutional equity flows. Higher inflation could push rates up, theoretically pressuring gold, but cash-flowing producers should stay resilient, unlike juniors tied to a weakening retail sector, stronger on Australia’s ASX than Canada’s TSX.

Canada’s potential retaliation, such as Ontario threatening to cut power, gas, and uranium, won’t quickly alter metals markets since supply chains can’t shift fast, and U.S. manufacturing revival will lag due to missing skills and capital. Mazumdar pivots to grassroots exploration, targeting teams with low-cost capital and multi-bid jurisdictions with Western and Chinese interest, sidestepping tariff-hit supply chains. Lithium’s oversupply and EV demand slump, worsened by Trump’s likely IRA cuts, darken critical minerals outlooks, with companies like Implats and Sibanye Stillwater pulling back, underscoring China’s dominance where Western competitiveness falters.