Belarus has offered to withdraw the lawsuit in exchange for allowing the potash fertilizer shipments to resume through Lithuania, although the Lithuanian government has refused this offer so far. This situation was linked to Belarus’s decision to release political prisoners in June. It was believed that American diplomats helped facilitate the prisoner exchange in hopes that Belarus potash fertilizers could be exported through the Baltic Sea again.

All this international politicking illustrates the importance of Belarus potash supplies. Belaruskali is one of the world’s largest potash producers. Since the sanctions were placed on various Belarusian business entities, Belarus’s potash shipments have become increasingly reliant on Russia for transport to global markets. It’s no wonder that Belarus is willing to give up the lawsuit at the European General Court in exchange for its potash exports. The Baltic Sea is to Belarus as the Odessa Port is to Ukraine: a lifeline for food and fertilizer exports. If stolen grain from Ukraine has made its way surreptitiously to global markets, then it’s a likely bet that potash supplies from Belarus will do the same. 

Finland is the other key problem for potash exports from Russia and Belarus. There have already been problems there since 2023, when Finland closed its border with Russia. This had an immediate impact on Russia’s potash fertilizer exports. Russian fertilizer exports through Finland were a point of contention during the UN-brokered deal to allow exports of Russian fertilizers to global markets. Finland detained Russian fertilizer cargos during the negotiations in Istanbul, even though Russian fertilizers were not being sanctioned at the time by the EU.

There appeared to be confusion at the time, given that Belarus’s potash was placed under the EU sanctions, but Russia’s potash was not being sanctioned. In other words, the EU has already been on the lookout for Russia’s transporting of Belarus’s potash supplies on the Baltic Sea.