Graphite Making Headlines | Market Update | Wood Mackenzie

China’s export restrictions and Syrah Resources’ production halt in Mozambique won’t drastically shake the graphite market, argues James Willoughby of Wood Mackenzie. He downplayed the targeted export bans on U.S. defense firms and Syrah’s downtime due to civil unrest, suggesting both have limited long-term effects. “The impact hasn’t been significant in terms of long-term volumes,” Willoughby said, noting minimal disruption to the battery sector—where U.S. defense rarely sources from China—and Syrah’s expected return by Q2, easing supply concerns.

Natural graphite demand will grow modestly from 1.7 million tons in 2024 to 1.9 million by 2030, Willoughby predicts, overshadowed by synthetic graphite’s grip on China’s EV and battery surge. He sees higher ex-China prices spurring new mines linked to anode projects, especially under U.S. Inflation Reduction Act incentives. “We’re seeing the emergence of new benchmarks for Europe and particularly in the US,” he noted, flagging a supply shortfall outside China by decade’s end, though low prices and financing challenges may hinder new players.